ARIMA Models in Load Modelling with Clustering Approach

In distribution system, bus load estimation is complicated because system load is usually monitored at only a few points. As a rule receiving nodes are not equipped with stationary measuring instruments so measurements of loads are performed sporadically. In general, the only information commonly available regarding loads, other than major distribution substations and equipment installations, is billing cycle customer kWh consumption. The paper presents application possibilities of ARIMA modelling with fuzzy clustering approach to electrical load estimation. The clustering of the substations (customers) according to daily load curves is made on the base of the average alignment degrees. Simulation studies have been performed to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed scheme and an effect of different parameters on its accuracy on the basis of actual data obtained at distribution system substations.
J. Nazarko, A. Jurczuk, W. Zalewski, ARIMA models in load modelling with clustering approach, Power Tech, 2005 IEEE Russia, St. Petersburg, June 27-30 2005, pp. 1-6