OPEN Repository

Welcome to OPEN - the Repository of Open Scientific Publications, run by the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling, University of Warsaw, previously operating as the CeON Repository. The Repository enables Polish researchers from all fields to openly share their articles, books, conference materials, reports, doctoral theses, and other scientific texts.

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Recent Submissions

Direct and Indirect Consequences of the War in Ukraine for Polish Trade in Agri-Food Products
(Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, 2023) Bułkowska, Małgorzata; Bazhenova, Hanna; Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy; Instytut Europy Środkowej
The ongoing war in Ukraine is associated with a number of negative and long-term macroeconomic consequences for Poland and other countries both in the area of trade and maintaining supply chains, as well as the security of energy supplies. Many entities in the agri-food sector are affected by this impact. The aim of the article is to assess the effects of the war in Ukraine on Polish agri-food trade. The paper presents the production and trade potential of Ukraine, defines trends in Polish agri-food trade with Ukraine after February 24, 2022, and identifies the main effects for Polish agri-food trade resulting from the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine. Several research methods were used in the article, ranging from a literature review and document analysis, through a statistical and descriptive method of production and trade data analysis, to competitiveness indices: the index of comparative advantages (RCA) and trade coverage ratio (TC). The research shows that in 2022 Polish imports of agri-food products from Ukraine increased almost three times in terms of value, as compared to 2021, reaching EUR 2.8 billion, which increased the competitive pressure on the internal market. It has also been proven that only part of agri-food products imported from Ukraine is subject to mutual Polish-Ukrainian competition on the EU market. This applies to products such as wheat, poultry meat, birds’ eggs, frozen fruit, but also highly processed food products, including confectionery and pastry. Further development of trade in agri-food products with Ukraine will be determined primarily by the situation at the front, the supply of goods for export, the possibility of exporting Ukrainian goods through the Black Sea ports, and the permeability of land solidarity routes. Data shows that in 2022 the yields of cereals, legumes, and oilseeds in Ukraine decreased by 34%, which should also translate into decreased exports.
Environmental, Climate, and Economic Aspects of Dairy Cow Farming
(Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, 2023) Józwiak, Wojciech; Mirkowska, Zofia; Sobierajewska, Jolanta; Zieliński, Marek; Ziętara, Wojciech; Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
The aim of the research was to determine the significance of cattle farming (especially dairy cows) in the use of forage area, mainly permanent grassland, and its relationship with the natural environment in terms of greenhouse gas emissions (methane), water consumption, and biodiversity. The analysis concerned 1,823 dairy farms under observation of the Polish FADN between 2018 and 2020 and managed by natural persons. The following aspects were taken into account: production potential of farms, production and economic results, organization of plant and animal production depending on the structure of forage area determined by the share of permanent grassland in the area. It was found that the production potential of the dairy farms under consideration and their production and economic results were negatively correlated with increased share of permanent grassland in the forage area. It was also found that a higher share of permanent grassland in the forage area: meant a higher share of valuable nature area in the farm; was specifically correlated with the balance of organic matter in the soil; the balance was positive in all of the considered cases, i.e., they kept an increasing amount of water in the soil and increasing amounts of carbon dioxide each year; resulted in a significant increase in water consumption per 1 liter of milk produced, but the situation was related to increased share of permanent grassland in the forage area and lower milk yield of cows.
Farms and Their Holders Implementing Agri-Environment-Climate Measures
(Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, 2023-06-28) Józwiak, Wojciech; Mirkowska, Zofia; Sobierajewska, Jolanta; Ziętara, Wojciech; Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
The article contains characteristics of farms implementing agri-environment-climate measures in diverse natural conditions defined by the valorization index of agricultural production area. Considering the farm size, three types of the conditions were distinguished: difficult, average, and favorable. Attention was focused on the production potential of farms, their human capital, and economic situation. The subject of the research was a group of 1,175 individual farms covered by the Polish FADN, which implemented agri-environment-climate measures under the 2014–2020 common agricultural policy between 2018 and 2020. It was not a representative sample for the entire population of farms implementing the above-mentioned measures. Farms operating in difficult habitat conditions had a lower production potential (agricultural area, economic size, capital, and capital–labor ratio). The share of farmers with agricultural education was also lower in the group. As a result, income from such farms was lower, the fixed assets replacement rate was lower and the farm was incapable of competing on the domestic market. The ability was demonstrated only by farms functioning in favorable habitat conditions. The share of payments in the income of the analyzed farms was also higher, on average, by 21.7 p.p., as compared to the average share of payments in the income of other farms with a similar agricultural area. The study shows that there is a very large share of subsidie in the income of the groups of farms implemetnting agri-environment-climate measures and a clear positive connection between longer working hours (at least 2120 hours per year) of the farm manager with the economic situation of the farm.
Economic Effects of Changes in the Excise Tax on Tobacco Products in Poland
(Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, 2023-06-28) Hryszko, Krzysztof; Szajner, Piotr; Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
The aim of the article is to assess the impact of changes in excise duty rates on prices, consumption, and tax revenue to the state budget on the development of the domestic tobacco industry. The study was conducted, among other things, using methods of statistical comparative analysis, dynamics of the main elements of the market, exponential regression analysis, and analysis of selected financial ratios. The research shows that between 2010 and 2021 the tobacco industry in Poland developed very dynamically due to foreign direct investments and competitiveness on the EU market. Fiscal policy determined prices of tobacco products, as indirect taxes dominated the structure of retail prices. The increasing rates of excise duty resulted in a decrease in cigarette consumption, which was compensated by an increase in the consumption of innovative products. The effectiveness of fiscal policy is also confirmed by the growing budget revenues and reducing the shadow economy in the internal market. In recent years, however, consumer income has been growing faster than the prices of tobacco products, which has resulted in their better affordability. In conclusion, between 2022 and 2027, excise tax rates will gradually increase due to the harmonization of the national tax law with the regulations in force in the European Union. The increase in excise duty rates will determine the production and sale of tobacco products, which will adapt to demand conditions. Higher rates of excise tax will result in an increase in the prices of tobacco products and state budget revenues from indirect taxes.
Expected Utility and Prospect Theories Versus Agricultural Insurance
(Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, 2023-03-30) Kulawik, Jacek; Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
The expected utility theory/hypothesis (EUT/ET) by von Neumann and Morgenstern has become the subject of criticism and efforts to improve it already at the moment of presenting its complete axiomatic form (1953). The broadest analysis was carried out by Kahneman and Tversky using the prospect theory (PT). However, it was not carefully prepared. The above two were helped in 1982 by Quiggin with his extension of the EUT in the form of the rank-dependent expected utility (RDEU). This was followed by Kahneman and Tversky in 1992 boasted the second version of the prospect theory, i.e., the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). It became the most competitive proposal to the EUT, although later other researchers added new elements to it. In this way, the subsequent generations of the PT were created. Today there are five in total. It soon became apparent that the PT also did not satisfactorily explain various cases of decision-making under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Upon closer analysis, however, it turned out that the PT was in fact a generalization of the EUT. Both theories are tools for modeling insurance decisions, including agriculture. In this context, the main aim of the article is to present the principles and the results of applying them in agricultural insurance. The analysis shows that the pragmatic solution at present is the combined use of both theories, with the EUT usually being the reference point.