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Direct and Indirect Consequences of the War in Ukraine for Polish Trade in Agri-Food Products
(Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, 2023) Bułkowska, Małgorzata; Bazhenova, Hanna; Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy; Instytut Europy Środkowej
The ongoing war in Ukraine is associated with a number of negative and long-term macroeconomic consequences for Poland and other countries both in the area of trade and maintaining supply chains, as well as the security of energy supplies. Many entities in the agri-food sector are affected by this impact. The aim of the article is to assess the effects of the war in Ukraine on Polish agri-food trade. The paper presents the production and trade potential of Ukraine, defines trends in Polish agri-food trade with Ukraine after February 24, 2022, and identifies the main effects for Polish agri-food trade resulting from the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine. Several research methods were used in the article, ranging from a literature review and document analysis, through a statistical and descriptive method of production and trade data analysis, to competitiveness indices: the index of comparative advantages (RCA) and trade coverage ratio (TC). The research shows that in 2022 Polish imports of agri-food products from Ukraine increased almost three times in terms of value, as compared to 2021, reaching EUR 2.8 billion, which increased the competitive pressure on the internal market. It has also been proven that only part of agri-food products imported from Ukraine is subject to mutual Polish-Ukrainian competition on the EU market. This applies to products such as wheat, poultry meat, birds’ eggs, frozen fruit, but also highly processed food products, including confectionery and pastry. Further development of trade in agri-food products with Ukraine will be determined primarily by the situation at the front, the supply of goods for export, the possibility of exporting Ukrainian goods through the Black Sea ports, and the permeability of land solidarity routes. Data shows that in 2022 the yields of cereals, legumes, and oilseeds in Ukraine decreased by 34%, which should also translate into decreased exports.
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Prospects for the Development of Polish Agri-Food Exports to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Countries
(Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, 2022-12-22) Ambroziak, Łukasz; Szczepaniak, Iwona; Pawlak, Karolina; Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy; Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu
The aim of the article is to describe Polish agri-food exports to countries that are members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and to assess the possibilities of developing exports of Polish food producers to the markets of these countries. The study was conducted, among others, with the use of a synthetic perspective index based on the data from Statistics Poland and the WITSComtrade database. The study shows that RCEP countries have a relatively low share in Polish agrifood exports (2.7% in 2021) and the trade is characterized by a permanently negative balance of food turnover. In the context of the growth prospects for Polish exports, it is difficult to speak of the same product groups in all markets. On the contrary, the choice of a given market determines which products can be regarded as prospective in Polish exports to this market. The products include not only processed, but also agricultural and low-processed ones. There is a risk that the agreement, which has been in force since the beginning of 2022, will cause the diversion effect, consisting in reducing the trade of RCEP countries with non-RCEP countries. This may make it necessary to adapt the trade strategy implemented on the Asian market by EU countries, including Poland, to the new conditions

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Affiliation: Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy Subject: agri-food products Publisher: Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
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