OPEN Repository

Welcome to OPEN - the Repository of Open Scientific Publications, run by the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling, University of Warsaw, previously operating as the CeON Repository. The Repository enables Polish researchers from all fields to openly share their articles, books, conference materials, reports, doctoral theses, and other scientific texts.

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Niemieckie przedsiębiorstwa i marki w sektorze motoryzacyjnym w Polsce
(Polskie Towarzystwo Geograficzne, 2023) Dyba, Wojciech; Stryjakiewicz, Tadeusz; Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, Wydział Geografii Społeczno-Ekonomicznej i Gospodarki Przestrzennej
Polska na przełomie XX i XXI wieku stała się miejscem lokalizacji wielu bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych w przemyśle, ze znaczącym udziałem firm produkujących części motoryzacyjne. Duże zmiany nastąpiły również na krajowym rynku samochodowym – auta upowszechniły się jako środek komunikacji indywidualnej. Istotną rolę w tych przemianach odegrały podmioty niemieckie. Celem artykułu jest analiza ich oddziaływania na polski sektor motoryzacyjny (ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem jego przestrzennego zróżnicowania), z dwojakiego punktu widzenia: a) skali i rozmieszczenia inwestycji produkcyjnych w tym sektorze, b) popularności niemieckich marek na polskim rynku samochodowym. Punktem wyjścia analizy, obok studiów literaturowych, było przygotowanie baz danych o zlokalizowanych w Polsce zakładach oraz zarejestrowanych samochodach. Ze względu na geograficzny charakter badań, podstawowymi metodami prezentacji danych oraz ich pogłębionej analizy i interpretacji były metody kartograficzne (mapa rozmieszczenia, kartogram). Badanie pozwoliło wykazać, że niemieckie firmy stanowią około 1/3 ogólnej liczby wszystkich przedsiębiorstw sektora motoryzacyjnego w Polsce, a samochody niemieckich marek około 1/3 wszystkich krajowych rejestracji samochodów. Analiza rozmieszczenia przestrzennego niemieckich inwestycji wskazuje, że znajdują się one głównie w Polsce południowo-zachodniej i zachodniej (województwa śląskie, dolnośląskie, wielkopolskie, lubuskie i zachodniopomorskie), co wynika z bliskości granicy z Niemcami, dostępności transportowej oraz siły roboczej (w tym wykwalifikowanej w przemyśle). Rejestracje niemieckich marek dominują w Polsce zachodniej i północnej, co silnie uwarunkowane jest importem samochodów używanych z Niemiec na tych obszarach.
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National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021
(Springer Nature, 2022) Bracher, Johannes; Wolffram, Danie; Deuschel, Jannik; Görgen, Konstantin; Ketterer, Jakob L.; Ullrich, Alexander; Abbott, Sam; Barbarossa, Maria V.; Bertsimas, Dimitris; Bhatia, Sangeeta; Bodych, Marcin; Bosse, Nikos I.; Burgard, Jan Pablo; Castro, Lauren; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Fiedler, Jochen; Fuhrmann, Jan; Funk, Sebastian; Gambin, Anna; Gogolewski, Krzysztof; Heyder, Stefan; Hotz, Thomas; Kheifetz, Yuri; Kirsten, Holger; Krueger, Tyll; Krymova, Ekaterina; Leithäuser, Neele; Li, Michael L.; Meinke, Jan H.; Miasojedow, Błażej; Michaud, Isaac J.; Mohring, Jan; Nouvellet, Pierre; Nowosielski, Jędrzej M.; Ozanski, Tomasz; Radwan, Maciej; Rakowski, Franciszek; Scholz, Markus; Soni, Saksham; Srivastava, Ajitesh; Gneiting, Tilmann; Schienle, Melanie; Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany; Computational Statistics Group,Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS), Germany; HIDSS4Health - Helmholtz Information and Data Science School for Health, Karlsruhe/Heidelberg, Germany; Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Berlin, Germany; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK; Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Germany; Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,Cambridge, MA, USA; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial College London, London, UK; Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Poland; Economic and Social StatisticsDepartment, University of Trier, Germany; Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA; Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics (ITWM), Kaiserslautern, Germany; Institute for Applied Mathematics, University of Heidelberg, Germany; Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics, and Mechanics, University of Warsaw; Institute of Mathematics,Technische Universität Ilmenau, Germany; Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig, Germany; Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zürich and EPF Lausanne, Zürich, Switzerland; Operations Research Center, MassachusettsInstitute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA; Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Germany; Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA; School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK; InterdisciplinaryCentre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling, University of Warsaw; Ming Hsieh Department of Computer and Electrical Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA; Institute for Stochastics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany
Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts ofthe short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In thisstudy we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland for the period from January through April 2021.Methods: We evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland. These were issued by 15 different forecasting models, run by independent research teams. Moreover, we study the performance of combined ensemble forecasts. Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts is based on proper scoring rules, along with interval coverage proportions to assess calibration. The presented work is part of a pre-registered evaluation study. Results: We find that many, though not all, models outperform a simple baseline model up to four weeks ahead for the considered targets. Ensemble methods show very good relative performance. The addressed time period is characterized by rather stable non-pharmaceutical interventions in both countries, making short-term predictions morestraightforward than in previous periods. However, major trend changes in reported cases,like the rebound in cases due to the rise of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant in March 2021, prove challenging to predict. Conclusions: Multi-model approaches can help to improve the performance of epidemiological forecasts. However, while death numbers can be predicted with some success based on current case and hospitalization data, predictability of case numbers remains low beyond quite short time horizons. Additional data sources including sequencing and mobility data, which were not extensively used in the present study, may help to improve performance.
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The Weimar Triangle: France, Germany, Poland in the Middle East. United Arab Emirates Perspective
(Faculty of Political Science and Journalism of Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznan, 2021-12) Krzymowski, Adam; Zayed University
The article’s scientific goal is to investigate the Weimar Triangle countries’ relations with the United Arab Emirates. Therefore, the author asks the research question. Are the Weimar Triangle states’ role and significance increasing in the external dimension of the European Union? Based on the example of the United Arab Emirates, the research adopted a hypothesis. It is the statement that after Brexit, the Weimar Triangle countries have a chance to improve their importance in the EU external activities. Apart from case studies, to revise the hypothesis, the author performed a meticulous comparative analysis. Moreover, the research implemented International Practice Theory as an appropriate tool to investigate the presented issue. This empirical research and its findings resulted from over ten years of the author’s direct observation, analysis, and participation in many initiatives, both in the European Union and in the United Arab Emirates. The Middle East for the Weimar Triangle countries is more significant than just from a trade potential perspective. The situation in this region is also affecting Europe, as well as global security architecture. For this reason, one should develop a coherent and comprehensive EU foreign and security policy towards the region, and the Weimar Triangle formula should be one of its pillars.

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