A Deep Dive into the Delta Wave: Forecasting SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Dynamic in Poland with the pDyn Agent-Based Model

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dc.contributor.authorNiedzielewski, Karol
dc.contributor.authorBartczuk, Rafał P.
dc.contributor.authorBielczyk, Natalia
dc.contributor.authorBogucki, Dominik
dc.contributor.authorDreger, Filip
dc.contributor.authorDudziuk, Grzegorz
dc.contributor.authorGórski, Łukasz
dc.contributor.authorGruziel-Słomka, Magdalena
dc.contributor.authorHaman, Jędrzej
dc.contributor.authorKaczorek, Artur
dc.contributor.authorKisielewski, Jan
dc.contributor.authorKrupa, Bartosz
dc.contributor.authorMoszyński, Antoni
dc.contributor.authorNowosielski, Jędrzej M.
dc.contributor.authorRadwan, Maciej
dc.contributor.authorSemeniuk, Marcin
dc.contributor.authorTymoszuk, Urszula
dc.contributor.authorZieliński, Jakub
dc.contributor.authorRakowski, Franciszek
dc.contributor.organizationInterdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling, University of Warsawen
dc.contributor.organizationInstitute of Psychology, John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin, Polanden
dc.contributor.organizationOntology of Value, Netherlandsen
dc.contributor.organizationFaculty of Physics, University of Bialystok, Polanden
dc.contributor.organizationDivision of Psychiatry, University College London, Great Britainen
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-26T13:46:24Z
dc.date.available2023-07-26T13:46:24Z
dc.date.issued2023-05-23
dc.description.abstractIn this work, we describe and forecast the fourth wave of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, driven by the Delta variant, using pDyn — a detailed epidemiological agent-based model. It is designed to explain the spatiotemporal dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 spread across Polish society, predicting the number and locations of disease-related states for agents living in the virtual society in response to varying properties of the pathogen and the social structure and behavior. We evaluate the validity of the dynamics generated by the model, including the succession of pathogen variants, immunization dynamics, and the ratio of vaccinated individuals among confirmed cases. Additionally, we assess the model’s predictive power in estimating pandemic dynamics (peak iming, peak value, and wave length) of disease-related states (number of confirmed cases, hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths) both at the national level and in the highest administrative units in Poland (voivodships). When testing the model’s validity, we compared real-world data (excluding data used for calibration) to our model estimates to evaluate whether pDyn accurately reproduced the epidemic dynamics up to the simulation time (October 28, 2021). To assess the accuracy of pDyn’s predictions, we retrospectively compared simulation results with real-world data acquired after the simulation date, evaluating pDyn as a tool for predicting future epidemic spread. Our results indicate that pDyn accurately predicts and can help us better understand the mechanisms underlying the SARS-CoV-2 dynamics.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThe present study was a part of the "ICM Epidemiological Model Development" project, funded by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grants 51/WFSN/2020, 28/WFSN/2021, and 37/WFSN/2022 awarded to the University of Warsaw.
dc.identifier.citationKarol Niedzielewski, Rafał P. Bartczuk, Natalia Bielczyk, Dominik Bogucki, Filip Dreger, Grzegorz Dudziuk, Łukasz Górski, Magdalena Gruziel-Słomka, Jędrzej Haman, Artur Kaczorek, Jan Kisielewski, Bartosz Krupa, Antoni Moszyński, Jędrzej M. Nowosielski, Maciej Radwan, Marcin Semeniuk, Urszula Tymoszuk, Jakub Zieliński, Franciszek Rakowski, A Deep Dive into the Delta Wave: Forecasting SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Dynamic in Poland with the pDyn Agent-Based Model, May 23, 2023, Niedzielewski K, Bartczuk RP, Bielczyk N, et al. A Deep Dive into the Delta Wave: Forecasting SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Dynamic in Poland with the pDyn Agent-Based Model. Research Square; 2023. DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2966996/v1.en
dc.identifier.doi10.21203/rs.3.rs-2966996/v1
dc.identifier.issn2693-5015
dc.identifier.urihttps://open.icm.edu.pl/handle/123456789/22760
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherResearch Square Companyen
dc.rightsUznanie autorstwa 4.0 Międzynarodowe*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectepidemic dynamicsen
dc.subjectepidemiologyen
dc.subjectagent-based modelen
dc.subjectCOVID-19en
dc.titleA Deep Dive into the Delta Wave: Forecasting SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Dynamic in Poland with the pDyn Agent-Based Modelen
dc.typearticleen
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