Phenomenon of uncertainty in the process of holistic anticipation of non-deterministic reality

Magruk, Andrzej

Phenomenon of uncertainty in the process of holistic anticipation of non-deterministic reality

Abstract

Uncertainty is one of the most important features of many areas of social and economic life, especially in the forward-looking context. On the one hand, the degree of uncertainty is associated with the objective essence of the randomness of the phenomenon, on the other hand, with the subjective perspective of a man, or a system as a human’s product. The right decisions are not always equivalent to good results. Sometimes, the decision taken in accordance with general rules brings worse results than the one who breaks them. Such a situation is possible as a result of the uncertainty accompanying the predictions of the future. In order to significantly reduce the uncertainty in the current decision-making (by ordering the knowledge of the present tense), an entity can centre their actions around the future through the foresight actions. The research problem in this paper is focused on the identification of sources of uncertainty with the future research, in particular, the foresight research. This article attempts to answer the following research question: “What factors and methods of foresight methodology enable the identification, analysis and minimization of the effects of uncertainty in the process of holistic inquiry of the future?”. The study uses the results of analysis methods and criticism of literature as main research methods. On this basis, the author conducted deductive reasoning.

Keywords

uncertainty foresight future system unexpected events

Citation

A. Magruk, Phenomenon of uncertainty in the process of holistic anticipation of non-deterministic reality, in: A. E. Gudanowska (ed.), 7th International Conference on Engineering, Project, and Production Management, Poland, Bialystok, September 21-23, 2016. Book of abstracts, Bialystok 2016, p. 63