Excess death rate in Eastern European countries and countries of the former USSR during the Covid-19 pandemic in the years 2020 and 2021
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10_Murkowski_Excess_final.pdf (472.17 KB)
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2022-12-31
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WSB in Poznań University Press
Abstract
Measuring the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on mortality on the basis of deaths reported by statistical offices by cause may be challenging due to the often poor quality of data. Therefore, this study analysed the level of excess mortality, regardless of the cause, to measure the true impact of the epidemic on the number of deaths. The analysis focused on selected countries from Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia as well as the Russian Federation, and was limited to the period 2020–2021. Time series analysis methods were used in order to account for seasonal fluctuations in mortality throughout the year. It was determined that some of the studied countries were “blind” to the development of the coronavirus epidemic in selected periods. The findings from this study allow the true scale and extent of the COVID-19 epidemic to be assessed correctly. Taking into account excess deaths would lead to substantial increase in the number of deaths attributed to the COVID-19. In the case of the 19 countries surveyed this number should be increased from the level of nearly 800,000 officially reported deaths to over 2 million excess deaths. The actual scale of deaths experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic has had grave ramifications both for society and various sectors of the economy
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Murkowski. R. (2022). Excess Death Rate in Eastern European Countries and Countries of the Former USSR during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Years 2020 and 2021. In W.Nowiński, K. Starzyk, & J. Rymarczyk (Eds.), Covid-19: Implications for the economy. (pp. 201-217), WSB in Poznań University Press.