Love in the time of cholera. Cholera epidemics and changes in the marriage market in nineteenth-century Poznań

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dc.contributor.authorLiczbińska, Grażyna
dc.contributor.authorBrabec, Marek
dc.contributor.authorPankowski, Patryk
dc.contributor.authorAntosik, Szymon
dc.contributor.authorVögele, Jörg Peter
dc.contributor.editorTim Riswick
dc.contributor.organizationInstitute of Human Biology and Evolution, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland
dc.contributor.organizationDepartment of Statistical Modelling, Institute of Computer Science, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
dc.contributor.organizationDoctoral School of Natural Sciences, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland
dc.contributor.organizationDoctoral School of Humanities, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland
dc.contributor.organizationDepartment of the History, Philosophy and Ethics of Medicine, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine-University, Düsseldorf, Germany
dc.contributor.organizationDepartment of Biostatistics, National Institute of Public Health, Prague, Czech Republic
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-27T05:12:31Z
dc.date.available2026-02-27T05:12:31Z
dc.date.issued2025-11-02
dc.date.submitted2026-02-25T13:37:22Zen
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates how cholera epidemics shaped marriage patterns in 19th-century Poznań, using formalized statistical modeling on individual records of 12,606 married couples from 1830 to 1874. Seven waves of cholera epidemics were studied (1831, 1837, 1848, 1852, 1855, 1866, and 1873). The number of months between the date of marriage and the end of the last epidemic was used in the modelling as a covariate with a potentially non-linear response. To examine the effects of epidemics upon marriages, we focused on the immediate post-epidemic period. The time frame of interest was defined as the interval starting at the end of a cholera epidemic and ending 12 months later. We observed a statistically significant effect of the parish (inter-parish heterogeneity; p < 0.001) and the number of months elapsing after the end of the cholera epidemic (p < 0.05) on the difference in the mean marriage age between groom and bride (in years). This difference rose in a non-linear and non-monotonic fashion, peaking twice: around 2 months and 8–9 months after the epidemic. The likelihood of marriages involving a disparity in marital status – where one partner was a widow/widower and the other was marrying for the first time – fluctuated significantly throughout the post-epidemic year, increasing in January, July, and August, and declining in April and October. The waves of cholera epidemics significantly influenced the likelihood of marriages between partners of different religious affiliations, particularly in the period following the end of the outbreaks. These patterns reflect a demographic deficit in Poznań after each epidemic, unevenly distributed across social strata, which disrupted the marriage market, influenced partner selection, and altered marriage timing and age dynamics. The findings underscore the profound social and demographic consequences of epidemics, highlighting how mortality crises can reshape intimate social structures and behaviors.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was fully supported by the National Science Centre, Poland, under the grant “Cholera epidemic in 1866 as a turning point in the history of Poznań”, No. UMO-2021/41/B/HS3/00594.
dc.identifier.citationGrażyna Liczbińska, Marek Brabec, Patryk Pankowski, Szymon Antosik & Jörg Peter Vögele. (2025). Love in the time of cholera. Cholera epidemics and changes in the marriage market in nineteenth-century Poznań. The History of the Family, 31(1), 138–160. DOI: 10.1080/1081602X.2025.2578470.
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/1081602X.2025.2578470
dc.identifier.issn1873-5398
dc.identifier.urihttps://open.icm.edu.pl/handle/123456789/26576
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherTaylor & Francis Group
dc.relation.urihttps://data.mendeley.com/datasets/rwd3cpgmz3/2
dc.rightsUznanie autorstwa 4.0 Międzynarodoween
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.sourceThe History of the Family. An International Quarterly
dc.subjectpost-epidemic phasesen
dc.subjectmarriage age differenceen
dc.subjectfirst-married spousesen
dc.subjectwidowed individualsen
dc.subjectgeneralized additive modellingen
dc.subjectcomplexity-penalized splinesen
dc.titleLove in the time of cholera. Cholera epidemics and changes in the marriage market in nineteenth-century Poznańen
dc.typearticle
dc.type.versionacceptedVersion
person.identifier.orcidLiczbińska, Grażyna [0000-0002-0922-4612]
person.identifier.orcidBrabec, Marek [0000-0001-6367-5791]
person.identifier.orcidPankowski, Patryk [0000-0001-7404-4362]
person.identifier.orcidAntosik, Szymon [0000-0003-4609-3313]
person.identifier.orcidVögele, Jörg Peter [0000-0002-1252-8457]
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